The recent chaos in Mexico isn’t as complicated as you think. It all comes down to the US midterm elections in November. Donald Trump needs the rich Cubans who live and vote in Florida, a vote that has served the Republican Party so well in every federal election(and to assist Marco Rubio, maybe the next Republican candidate for President).
To commence, the action started with the kidnapping of Venezuela dictator Maduro. The US now controls Venezuelan oil. Venezuela was sending oil to Cuba. No more. So Cuba is now out of oil. No oil, so no electricity. Collapse coming soon in Cuba. Then Mexican President Scheinbaum agreed to send some oil to Cuba. One freighter arrived, then Trump said “stop now or face the consequences.” No more oil for Cuba. Can you say “starvation?”
Reports circulated that Alejandro Castro Espín (a rich Cuban businessman) was already talking directly to the CIA. He was also involved in secret talks with the Obama administration 12 years ago that led to a short-lived thaw in relations. Many Cubans see Espín as part of the less visible, but more influential, wing of communist rule.
According to a CBC report, Buenos Aires-based Cuban lawyer Alain Espinoza, said: “Power has always been divided between those who show their faces, such as Díaz-Canel and the Council of State, and those who control the Cuban economy behind the curtain, such as Espín. Behind him large economic concerns, including the military-owned holding company GAESA (hotels and resorts) are the ones who really control all the money and economy of Cuba.”
Espinoza said he doesn’t believe the communist regime as a whole would ever agree to leave power, but “we can’t rule out the possibility that those who control the Cuban economy might be willing to negotiate an exit that allows them to keep some of the fortune they have amassed, without having to fear legal repercussions or criminal prosecution.” The deal that might emerge from such talks could strongly resemble the deal with Delcy Rodríguez, now Venezuela’s acting president, where some elements within the regime turn against others in order to secure better terms for themselves from Washington.
In order to squeeze Cuba, Trump started with Mexico. The CIA had already tracked and captured Ryan Wedding, the Canadian coke dealer hiding in Mexico. Immediately Mexican President Scheinbaum claimed credit for the arrest, but news outlets said Wedding had “turned himself in” (ha ha) at the US embassy. Then the CIA let it be known that they were the ones who had captured Wedding, “with the assistance of the Mexican police.” Ha ha.
Trump had already threatened to send US troops to Mexico to attack the cartels. That would be total war. This was also a way to undermine Scheinbuam’s power. She knew, as does anyone with half a brain, not to trifle with the cartels because they have more money and guns than the government. Jailing or killing any big criminal boss always leads to murder and mayhem, no matter what country. Other criminals rush in to replace the leader that has been killed and chaos results..
A few days ago Trump gave the order to undermine Scheinbaum again. The CIA and/or the Mexicans captured/killed El Mencho, the leading drug lord among cartels. Obviously plans had been discussed long ago by the cartels what to do when any cartel leader went down. Fires were set in key places in towns and cities along the Pacific Coast. The intent was to damage the Mexican tourist industry, which is abig cash cow for Mexico. The Mexican government has been taught a lesson, but not by the cartels. Do what Trump says or face the consequences.
Cuban president Miguel Diaz-Canel has said he is ready to discuss “substantial” matters with the USA. However, experts doubt that would include giving up power. “It’s their survival that’s at stake right now,” according to a reporter with CBC News, quoting local experts. “They know they have a very short time window. They know that in November, the Republican Party is going to face new elections that may change Congress. They (Communists) will try to survive for six, seven months, trying to reduce every expense, to put on the shoulders of the people every burden they can, because what they want right now is to do what they have been doing for 67 years: buy time. That has always been their policy, surviving one day after the other.”
Some Cuban dissidents and analysts said they weren’t convinced by the reports of talks with the CIA. If talks do happen, many Cubans worry that the U.S. will merely demand changes from the existing regime, rather than actual regime change. When Venezuelan leader Maduro was spirited away to a U.S. prison cell, his vice-president Delcy Rodríguez, was permitted to take his place, apparently indefinitely. That outcome disappointed many Venezuelan citizens, who were hoping the U.S. would demand that the opposition’s victory in the 2024 elections be respected, or demand new elections.
According again to the CBC, Cuban dissidents from different political currents share the same concerns about the future; a fear of violence and score-settling, the worry that impoverished Cubans could become an underclass in their own country if wealthy exiles return and, most recently, unease that Washington might seek a compromise solution in Havana that leaves the dictatorship in control.
The rich Cubans in Florida have always let it be known they want back their property in Cuba, and their wealth, to be returned. The Republican Party has always needed the rich Cubans electoral support, especially this November in the mid-term elections. Trump, and the Cubans who hold all the power in Cuba (the Communist Party along with the military) will let the situation in Cuba (i.e. starvation) continue until further notice. The Cuban army is too powerful (they own most of the resorts, who cater to Canadian tourists) to allow the US to ever invade. (See Bay of Pigs). According to the Miami Herald, Cuban military leaders already have stashed billions of dollars in US banks in readiness that the Communist regime will eventually fall, and if so, they will too.
All that matters to Trump is to do what he does every day, which is to hurt as many people as he can to satisfy his sadistic urges. What happens to Cuba in the long run is unknown. They have no oil and selling sugar and cigars doesn’t balance the budget. Likely Cuba goes back to the good old days, attracting lots of tourists (Canadians, and maybe Americans) to properties owned by wealthy Cubans. Then Rubio runs for President three years from now.
There is a scene in Godfather Part Two set in Havana in 1959, where American mafia bosses gather together to discuss expanding their Cuban empire of hotels, whorehouses and dirty businesses. American crime boss Meyer Lansky says to gangster Michael Corleone: “We’re bigger than US Steel!” American corporations (like US Steel) were at the table as well. Lansky passes around a gold telephone for everyone to fondle. The crooks knew they had the CIA on their side.
Now in 2026, it looks like things are going “back to the future” again. No matter what happens, the kind and friendly average Cuban citizen gets screwed again. As one retired solidier said to me when I visited last year: “We were poor before the Revolution, and during the Revolution, and we are still poor now. We don’t know any different.”